Head of the Strategic Foresight Unit, Euro-Gulf Information Center (EGIC)
Unable to predict what next week will bring
Piercamillo Falasca is the head of the Strategic Foresight Unit at the Euro-Gulf Information Center, an independent international organisation focused on strengthening the relationship between the Gulf states and Europe. With offices in Rome and Brussels, the organisation works to provide European industries and governments with direct access to information and developments from the Gulf region, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and other key countries in the area.
“The situation changes every day”
We spoke with Piercamillo two weeks ago, shortly after the Strait of Hormuz experienced major disruptions that created instability across the European energy market.
“I honestly cannot tell you today what I will speak about on 19 May,” said Piercamillo back then. “The situation changes daily. What I will present depends entirely on what happens in the days and even hours before the event. What is already clear, however, is that the Strait needs to reopen quickly. Otherwise, Europe could enter a historically difficult period.”
Fertiliser may become the bigger problem
According to Piercamillo, energy is not the only concern.
“Most people immediately think about gas and petroleum,” he explains. “But fertiliser may become an even bigger challenge. A significant share of the fertiliser imported into Europe passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipments are delayed during the critical agricultural season in June and July, Europe could face severe pressure on food production. Food prices would increase substantially across the continent.”
Energy remains a major concern
At the same time, energy supply remains highly uncertain.
“And again, I truly do not know yet what I will be able to tell you on 19 May,” Piercamillo concludes. “The developments are moving extremely fast. The only certainty is that attendees at the Tuesday Breakfast will receive the latest available information directly from someone closely following the region.”
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